Japan Financial Strategy Center | Independent research | 9 October 2026

Japan's Property Boom at a Crossroads: What Pushes Prices Down — and Up — from 2026

Five minutes' walk from Akihabara Station, on the 25th floor of a 40-story tower condominium, a 92 m² corner unit was put up for sale in August 2025 at ¥478 million. By December, the same unit was listed at ¥358 million. That is a cut of ¥120 million, or 25%, in 4 months.

A luxury condominium in Mita, Minato Ward, completed only in 2025. A 166 m² unit was listed in May 2026 at ¥1.79 billion. In October it was ¥1.42 billion — down ¥370 million, or 21%, in 5 months.

Source: Compiled by us from archived versions (Internet Archive) of listing pages on the property portal SUUMO, comparing the asking price in the first and last archived versions of the same listing page

Tracking listings in Tokyo's 23 wards that stayed on SUUMO for a long time, we confirmed asking-price cuts for 548 of 839 listings (65%). Among the listings that were cut, the median cut was −4.8%, and 98 were cut by 10% or more. These are properties that have sat unsold for months; the figures are not shares of all resale condominiums in the 23 wards.

We believe Japanese real estate entered a downward phase from 2026. This summer, condominium asking prices in central Tokyo fell for 4 consecutive months. The number of units for sale in Tokyo's 23 wards rose 25% in a year, and nearly half of the units left unsold have moved to price cuts. Meanwhile, the prices at which properties actually sold were still setting record highs through March 2026. This article lays out both sets of figures side by side and then examines the downward and upward factors one at a time. Finally, using our own tabulation of government transaction data, we show which areas and which price bands have begun to fall.

The conclusion first

From 2026, Japanese real estate has entered a downward phase.

It will not fall all at once, however. Government transaction data show that the very center of Tokyo is still rising. Declines can already be confirmed in suburban condominiums and in the Osaka districts where private short-term rentals (minpaku) are concentrated.

For those who measure their assets in a foreign currency, the story has moved one step further. Even where yen prices have risen, the exchange rate may already have eroded the value of the investment. A property bought in 2020, for example, may be up nearly 50% in yen yet roughly flat in US dollars.

There are 4 downward factors: interest rates, unsold inventory, thinning new buying from overseas, and the exchange rate. There are upward factors too: new supply is shrinking, and people keep moving to Tokyo. This article examines both side by side.

Six inputs to the judgment

Lumping everything about prices together leads to misreadings. This article looks at the following 6 inputs separately.

For example, even if yen prices fall, a stronger yen restores the value measured in yuan. Rising interest rates push yen prices down, but through a stronger yen they push up the value in yuan. Each input works in a different direction, so without separating them it is easy to reach the wrong conclusion.

Downward factor 1: Interest rates have risen

On September 18, 2026, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25%. In the two and a half years since it ended negative interest rates in March 2024, the rate has gone from 0% to 1.25%. The statement says the Bank will "continue to raise the policy interest rate" in accordance with economic, price and financial conditions, leaving room for further hikes.

Source: Bank of Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting statements (each meeting); Ministry of Finance, Interest Rate on JGBs (国債金利情報)

Mortgages feel these hikes right away. Of the housing loans newly made in fiscal 2024, 83.5% were floating-rate loans (by value; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Survey on Private-Sector Housing Loans (民間住宅ローンの実態に関する調査)). Floating rates are influenced by the policy rate through banks' short-term prime rates and similar benchmarks, so they tend to rise when rates are being raised. Many floating-rate loans keep the repayment amount fixed for 5 years and cap any revision at 1.25 times, so monthly payments do not jump immediately. The difference, however, goes to interest, in the form of slower repayment of principal. For new borrowers, the amount they can borrow on the same income shrinks one-for-one. For Flat 35, the fully fixed-rate mortgage, the most common rate rose to 3.83% in October 2026.

Investment properties are affected too. In the Japan Real Estate Institute's Japanese Real Estate Investor Survey (不動産投資家調査), the expected yield on a whole building of studio apartments in Tokyo's Jonan area was 3.6% (April 2026). With the 10-year JGB yield now up to 3.11%, the gap is only about 0.5 percentage points. There is little reason left to take on vacancies, repairs and even borrowing for a yield barely different from government bonds. The pressure is toward higher yields — in other words, lower prices.

The Bank of Japan itself wrote in its April 2026 Financial System Report (金融システムレポート) that "the downward trend in the yield gap, which suggests the real estate risk premium, has continued, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to developments in real estate market conditions."

Downward factor 2: Unsold stock is rising, and price cuts have begun

In the Tokyo metropolitan area's resale condominium market, the tide turned in the spring of 2026.

Source: Real Estate Information Network for East Japan (東日本不動産流通機構), Monthly Flash Report "Market Watch" (月例速報 Market Watch), August 2026

In Tokyo's 23 wards alone, the closed price per m² was −0.3% year on year, essentially flat, but it was the first decline in 76 months, since April 2020. The number of closed transactions fell sharply, by −20.6%.

The point to note is that the price per m² of the stock for sale is 1.46 times the price per m² at which units actually sold. Sellers are still pricing aggressively, but buyers are not biting at those prices, and stock is piling up.

Tokyo Kantei's asking prices (normalized to 70 m²) show that the market has moved on to the next stage.

Source: Tokyo Kantei, Monthly Trends in 70 m² Resale Condominium Prices in the Three Major Metropolitan Areas and Major Cities (三大都市圏・主要都市別 中古マンション70㎡価格月別推移), August 2026; Tokyo Kantei, Resale Condominium Market Indicators (中古マンション 市場指標)

In Tokyo's 23 wards, resale condominiums on the market, including newly listed ones, rose 25% in one year, from 12,145 units to 15,218. Among units left unsold from the previous month, the share that had been cut in price within the last 3 months rose from 36.8% to 48.9% — nearly half have moved to price cuts. Tokyo Kantei wrote that "central Tokyo, which had been taking on an overheated tone, has entered a correction phase."

New builds have also lost momentum. The first-month contract rate in the Tokyo metro area was 61.1% in August, and in most months of 2026 it was below 70%, the level regarded as the benchmark of a healthy market. Unsold inventory stood at 6,610 units, 16% more than a year earlier.

Downward factor 3: New buying from overseas is thinning

In 2026, the government's mechanisms for tracking property acquisitions by foreign nationals came into operation all at once.

None of these prohibits acquisitions outright. But the fact that the government can now see who bought what, and that even stronger rules are under discussion, gives overseas buyers a reason to hold back.

Demand from overseas is also thinning. Visitor arrivals to Japan in August 2026 diverged sharply by country and region. Travelers from countries that are calling on their citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan fell to less than half of the previous year's level, and occupancy at minpaku and hotels has dropped.

To be clear, we could not find any statistics this time showing that overseas owners are selling Japanese real estate in large volumes. That is because no official statistics count sellers by nationality in the first place. What this article argues is that new buying from overseas will weaken from here. Selling by people who own property and a decline in people newly buying are different things. Acquisitions by people living outside Japan accounted for only 2.8% even of new-build condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards (2025, MLIT); they were never the main driver of prices to begin with. Where it matters is the particular markets where overseas buying had concentrated, such as high-end properties in central Tokyo and minpaku and investment properties.

Downward factor 4: Measured in foreign currency, prices have already fallen

For those who measure their assets in a foreign currency, the biggest factor is the exchange rate. Between 2020 and 2026, the yen weakened substantially against the major currencies.

We calculated, currency by currency, the gain or loss on a resale condominium in the Tokyo metro area bought for ¥100 million. The gain in yen is calculated from the change in REINS's closed price per m² (point of sale = August 2026). Fees, taxes, rent and remittance costs are not included.

Source: Calculated by us from the Real Estate Information Network for East Japan's monthly flash reports and the European Central Bank's euro reference exchange rates (Federal Reserve Board H.10 for the New Taiwan dollar). Converted at each currency's monthly average rate

A property bought in August 2020 has risen nearly 50% in yen. In US dollars, euros or Hong Kong dollars, however, it is roughly flat. In Singapore dollars and yuan, it has lost value. Seen from overseas buyers, the rise in Japanese real estate since 2020 has been almost entirely erased by the weaker yen. Those who bought in 2025 are down 5–16% whichever currency they measure in.

Splitting Tokyo's 23 wards makes the link with the exchange rate even clearer.

Source: Calculated by us from MLIT's Real Estate Transaction Price Information (不動産取引価格情報) (closed-transaction price data) and the European Central Bank's euro reference exchange rates (January–March 2021 → January–March 2026, converted at each quarter's average rate)

Over this period, the dollar went from ¥106 to ¥157. Prices in the central 6 wards rose by about as much as the yen weakened, and in dollars they are roughly unchanged. In effect, overseas buyers have kept paying roughly the same price in their own currency. Outside the center, prices rose only 34% in yen, and in dollars they have fallen. That is a market where domestic buyers purchase with mortgages, and what sets prices there is domestic incomes and interest rates.

From here, the story splits depending on which way the exchange rate moves. If yen prices go flat or fall, the loss in foreign-currency terms simply widens.

If the yen strengthens again, it cuts the opposite way depending on one's position. For overseas owners who already hold property, the value in foreign currency rises, and selling would capture a currency gain. For overseas buyers who have yet to buy, the same property becomes more expensive in their own currency and harder to buy. With more sellers and fewer buyers, yen prices come under downward pressure. That pressure shows up most strongly in central Tokyo, where overseas buying has been setting prices. Moreover, if the yen does strengthen, it would most likely be in a situation where the Bank of Japan keeps raising rates, which also makes mortgages heavier for domestic buyers. A stronger yen is not a support for yen prices.

Looking back, resale condominium prices in Tokyo's 23 wards turned down twice, in 2008 and 2011, and both times the yen was more than 10% stronger against the dollar than a year earlier. Neither a spread of declines in the suburbs alone nor a stronger yen alone has dragged central Tokyo down with it (Appendix A-7). The Japan Research Institute expects the dollar–yen rate to move gradually toward a stronger yen. No one can say for certain how exchange rates will move from here.

Upward factors: what is still strong

Lining up only the downward factors would not be fair. There are genuine upward factors as well.

• New supply is shrinking. New condominium launches in the Tokyo metro area totaled 21,962 units in 2025, the 4th consecutive annual decline. Construction costs have risen, and land is getting harder to secure in the 23 wards. The average price of a new condominium in the Tokyo metro area in the first half of 2026 was ¥101.35 million, exceeding ¥100 million for the first time.
• People keep moving to Tokyo. In the 2025 census, the population of Tokyo's 23 wards rose by about 220,000 over 5 years. The Tokyo area has had net in-migration for 30 years in a row. The number of households in Tokyo is projected to keep rising until 2035.
• Large-scale investment money is at a record high. Real estate investment in Japan in the first half of 2026 totaled ¥3.7517 trillion, a record for a first half (JLL). Investment by overseas investors was ¥1.1105 trillion, holding at around the previous year's level.
• Land prices are still rising. In the prefectural land price survey as of July 1, 2026, residential land rose +8.7% in Tokyo's 23 wards and +6.7% in Osaka City, with the rate of increase actually widening.

We nonetheless see a downward phase because these factors mainly support new builds in central Tokyo and large deals, and do not reach suburban resale condominiums or individuals' investment properties. In the next section, we check that gap against government transaction data.

Where the decline starts: our tabulation of government transaction data

MLIT has suspended publication of its Real Estate Price Index (不動産価格指数) since April 2026, citing a defect in its calculation program. The latest official index is for December 2025. We therefore obtained MLIT's Real Estate Transaction Price Information (data on each individual closed transaction) for all 47 prefectures and tabulated it ourselves through January–March 2026.

The tabulation method is set out in the appendix. Here we compare the median closed price per m² of resale condominiums in the latest 2 quarters (October 2025–March 2026) with the same 2 quarters a year earlier.

Central Tokyo is still rising

The closed price of resale condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards was 1,075,000 yen per m² in January–March 2026. That is 11% higher than a year earlier and a new record. In the central 6 wards it was 1,684,000 yen per m², up 14%. As far as closed prices go, the heart of Tokyo has not yet fallen.

Split by price band, however, the picture is different. In the 23 wards' ¥50–100 million band, the rise in price per m² was only +1.9% year on year. Much of the 23 wards' overall +11% comes from an increase in transactions of expensive properties pushing up the average; within the same price band, prices have barely risen.

Declines are starting in the suburbs

Nationwide, of the 35 prefectures with enough closed transactions, 12 were below the previous year. Among municipalities, 62 of 173 have fallen.

Source: Compiled by us from MLIT's Real Estate Transaction Price Information (closed-transaction price data, resale condominiums, etc.)

Declines are coming from the Kansai suburbs, the outer ring of the Tokyo metro area, and regional prefectures. The places still rising are Tokyo (+9.4%), Fukuoka Prefecture (+14.0%) and regional core cities. This fits the logic that rising interest rates bite first in the suburbs, where people buying with mortgages have limited budgets.

In Osaka, from the upper price bands and the minpaku districts

In Osaka City, unlike Tokyo, prices have started to fall from the upper price bands. The ¥100 million-and-over band was −0.8% year on year, and the ¥50–100 million band −1.4%. Compared with the previous quarter, they were −4.3% and −3.6% respectively. In the city where the Expo and minpaku drew the most overseas buying, prices of expensive properties are crumbling first.

The effect of minpaku shows up even more clearly. Osaka City had 7,929 special-zone minpaku facilities as of the end of January 2026; the most were in Nishinari Ward (2,172 facilities), followed by Chuo Ward, Naniwa Ward and Ikuno Ward (538 facilities). A rush of applications before new intake closed pushed the number up to 10,132 by the end of June. Because Nishinari and Ikuno wards see only around 10 condominium transactions per quarter, we compared transactions of land and buildings, including detached houses and row houses (nagaya).

Source: Compiled by us from Osaka City, List of Certified Special-Zone Minpaku Facilities (特区民泊の認定施設一覧) (as of January 31, 2026), and MLIT's Real Estate Transaction Price Information (closed-transaction price data)

In the 2 wards where minpaku are most concentrated, land and building prices are already below the previous year. This decline comes while resale condominiums across Osaka City as a whole rose +5.1% year on year over the same period. These figures run only to March 2026, before the regulations took effect. We believe they reflect, ahead of time, the drop in minpaku occupancy caused by the fall in visitors.

More regulation is now piling on. Osaka City stopped accepting new special-zone minpaku applications on May 29, 2026. Existing facilities can keep operating, but they cannot add rooms. In the city's survey of actual conditions, about half of the special-zone minpaku that responded operate more than 180 days a year, so they cannot move to minpaku under the new law, which is capped at 180 days a year. In addition, an amendment to the city's hotel business ordinance was reported to have passed the city council on September 30 (scheduled to take effect on October 30). Under the city's draft amendment, starting a new hotel business in a building where people live would in principle require reinforced-concrete construction. The path of switching from minpaku to a hotel business license to keep operating has also narrowed. Properties priced on the expectation of minpaku income carry room for that portion of the price to peel away.

In central Tokyo's high-end segment, asking prices are moving first

Closed prices were rising through March 2026, but asking prices in central Tokyo began to fall in the following months of May–August. Closed prices follow asking prices with a lag.

The 2 cases at the top of this article are part of this. Using archived versions (Internet Archive) of listing pages on property portals, we gathered how the asking prices of the same properties changed across all 23 wards. Properties that stayed listed for months are, put another way, properties that did not sell. Properties that sold disappear from the portals, so they are not included in this tally.

A ward-by-ward breakdown is given in Appendix A-5.

What will happen to the waterfront tower condominiums?

The waterfront — Toyosu, Harumi, Kachidoki, Ariake, Shibaura, Konan and nearby areas — is where prices rose the most in Tokyo's 23 wards over the past 5 years. We isolated the waterfront using the district names in the government transaction data.

Source: Compiled by us from MLIT's Real Estate Transaction Price Information (closed-transaction price data, resale condominiums, etc.). Waterfront = Koto Ward (Toyosu, Ariake, Shinonome, Tatsumi, Shiomi, Edagawa, Aomi), Chuo Ward (Harumi, Kachidoki, Tsukishima, Tsukuda, Toyomi-cho), Minato Ward (Shibaura, Konan, Daiba, Kaigan), Shinagawa Ward (Higashi-Shinagawa, Yashio)

The waterfront's closed price per m² nearly doubled in 5 years — close to 3 times the rise in the rest of the 23 wards. Even in US dollars it is up about 30%; this is a market that has risen by more than the weak yen accounts for.

Within the waterfront, however, properties under ¥100 million were already below the previous year in January–March 2026. Only properties of ¥100 million and over are rising. On asking prices too, price cuts were confirmed for 104 of the 159 waterfront properties that had been listed on SUUMO for a long time (median change −3.6%).

We see the waterfront as the market that, having risen the most, will also move the most when downward forces arrive. As shown in Appendix A-7, Tokyo's 23 wards turned down in the past when declines spread across the suburbs and the yen strengthened at the same time. If those 2 conditions line up, the first prices to be tested will be those of high-end waterfront properties.

What to look at, by reader

Even with the same market analysis, what you should watch depends on where you stand.

Selling the property alone, or the whole company

Many people hold real estate in the name of a company: asset-management companies that own rental apartment buildings, companies set up in Japan for investment, companies that own land and buildings used in their business, and so on. In that case, there are 2 ways to sell.

When the whole company is sold, the buyer examines not just the property but the company itself: registrations and lease contracts, loan terms, past financial statements and tax filings, whether there are liabilities not recorded on the books, and so on. On the seller's side, having the latest financial statements, the property documents and the loan agreements ready will help things move quickly.

For sellers who do not live in Japan, there are more points to watch. When only the property is sold, the buyer, as a rule, withholds income tax from the purchase price. When the whole company is sold, shares in a company whose assets consist mostly of Japanese real estate may also be taxed in Japan. In either case, filing in your country of residence and procedures for remitting the money from Japan are required. Because tax treatment varies with individual circumstances, confirmation with a tax accountant or other professional is essential.

Which is more advantageous depends on the property's unrealized gain, the company's borrowings, and the country where the seller lives. If you hold property in the name of a company, please consult us, including on which way of selling suits you.

Summary: sellers and buyers alike need to see which market they are in

Japanese real estate is not a single market. New builds in central Tokyo are still strong, while suburban resale condominiums and Osaka's minpaku districts are already falling. For those measuring in a foreign currency, value is eroding even where yen figures have risen.

In a falling market, both sellers and buyers have to look at which area, which price band and which currency the story of their property belongs to. Once selling has piled up, sellers become the side whose price is chosen by buyers.

We advise on both the sale of properties and the sale of the companies that hold them (share transfer / M&A), and consultations are available in English, Chinese and Japanese.

What this article could not confirm

• Whether overseas owners are net sellers of Japanese real estate. There are no official statistics counting sellers by nationality.
• How much Japanese real estate people overseas own. Neither the government nor the private sector publishes an estimate. Tracking of nationality through registration only began in October 2026.
• Closed prices from April 2026 onward. The latest MLIT transaction price information is for January–March 2026, and publication of the Real Estate Price Index has also been suspended.
• Figures showing properties being put up for sale or cut in price because of minpaku regulation. None have been found so far.

Appendix: Method and data

Appendix A-1: Resale condominium closed price per m² by prefecture (latest 2 quarters, year on year)

The 35 prefectures with 60 or more closed transactions. 12 prefectures were below the previous year.

Appendix A-2: Municipalities where prices fell year on year (30 or more closed transactions)

Of the 173 municipalities with 30 or more closed transactions, 62 were below the previous year. Designated cities are counted as one city, with their wards combined.

Appendix A-3: Tokyo 23 wards, resale condominium closed price per m² over time (quarterly)

Appendix A-4: Osaka City by ward: special-zone minpaku facilities and year-on-year change in transaction prices

Condominiums = resale condominiums, etc.; land and buildings = transactions of residential land, including detached houses and row houses. Wards with fewer than 20 transactions are shown as "—". In Chuo Ward, Naniwa Ward and similar wards, land-and-building transactions include office buildings, so values swing widely.

Appendix A-5: Tokyo 23 wards, changes in the asking prices of properties on the market (SUUMO archived versions)

839 listings whose same listing page was archived at intervals of 30 days or more. 548 cut, 273 unchanged, 18 raised. Median change -2.9%; median cut among the properties that were cut −4.8%.

Appendix A-7: The spread of declines and past episodes

We lined up, quarter by quarter since 2006, the share of municipalities where the resale condominium closed price per m² fell year on year (comparing the latest 2 quarters with the same 2 quarters a year earlier, and counting only municipalities with 30 or more transactions in both). Because a long series is needed, we use MLIT's transaction price information based on its questionnaire survey (with the closed-transaction price data shown alongside from 2021 onward).

Even in good times, around 30% of municipalities show a year-on-year decline (because medians in municipalities with few transactions swing). In 2008 and 2011, Tokyo's 23 wards turned down in quarters when this share exceeded 40% and, at the same time, the yen was more than 10% stronger against the dollar than a year earlier. In 2019, 2021 and 2025, the share exceeded 40% but the exchange rate barely moved, and the 23 wards did not fall. Conversely, in 2016 the yen was 16% stronger against the dollar than a year earlier, but only around 30% of municipalities fell, and the 23 wards did not fall. Neither the spread of declines in the suburbs nor a yen appreciation of more than 10% has, on its own, turned central Tokyo down. 2008 coincided with the Lehman shock, and 2011 with the Great East Japan Earthquake and the European debt crisis; with only 2 episodes in the data, the effect of the stronger yen cannot be separated from the effect of the crises themselves.

Appendix A-6: Data downloads (CSV, CC BY 4.0)

• Resale condominium closed price per m² by prefecture (latest 2 quarters, year on year)
• Resale condominium closed price per m² by municipality (30 or more closed transactions)
• Tokyo 23 wards, resale condominium closed price per m², quarterly (2021 onward)
• Osaka City by ward: special-zone minpaku facilities and year-on-year change in transaction prices
• Share of municipalities that fell year on year and Tokyo 23 wards year on year (2006 onward, quarterly)
• Tokyo 23 wards, changes in asking prices (property names and addresses removed)
• Tokyo waterfront and the rest of the 23 wards, resale condominium closed price per m² (year on year, vs. 5 years earlier)

• Transaction prices: the closed-transaction price data in MLIT's Real Estate Transaction Price Information (published by the government based on the closed-transaction data of the Real Estate Information Networks). Property type: "resale condominiums, etc."; the comparison of Osaka's minpaku districts uses "residential land (land and buildings)".
• Exclusions: transactions with an entry under "circumstances of the transaction" (between relatives, through mediation, etc.), and those under 15 m² (condominiums) or under 20 m² (land and buildings).
• Comparison: to smooth out the swings of a single quarter, we compared the median for the latest 2 quarters (October–December 2025 + January–March 2026) with that for the same 2 quarters a year earlier. Because values swing in areas with few transactions, we show only prefectures with 60 or more transactions and municipalities with 30 or more.
• The median moves depending on what kinds of properties traded in the period. The price-band comparisons remove that effect by comparing price per m² within each band.

Frequently asked questions

Q. Will Japanese real estate keep rising?

Parts of central Tokyo and high-end waterfront properties were still rising on closed prices through March 2026. On the other hand, asking prices in central Tokyo fell for 4 consecutive months in May–August 2026, and nationwide, the closed price per m² of resale condominiums was below the previous year in 12 of the 35 prefectures with enough closed transactions. We believe that, overall, the rising phase has ended and a falling phase has begun.

Q. What will happen to the waterfront tower condominiums from here?

The closed price per m² of resale condominiums on the waterfront (Toyosu, Harumi, Kachidoki, Ariake, Shibaura, Konan and nearby areas) nearly doubled in 5 years. However, properties under ¥100 million fell below the previous year in January–March 2026, and price cuts were confirmed for about two-thirds of waterfront properties that had been listed on SUUMO for a long time. Having risen the most, it is, in our view, the market that will move the most when a spread of suburban declines and a stronger yen come together.

Q. Will Japanese real estate now fall nationwide?

It will not fall uniformly across the country. In government transaction data, by March 2026 declines had appeared in the suburbs, in parts of the regions and in Osaka's minpaku districts, while central Tokyo was still rising. Asking prices began to fall in central Tokyo too in May–August, and we expect closed prices to catch up with a lag.

Q. Have I lost money on a Japanese property bought with foreign currency?

It depends on when you bought and which currency you use. For a resale condominium in the Tokyo metro area bought in August 2020, the result is +48.8% in yen, but −0.7% in US dollars, −3.4% in yuan and −7.4% in Singapore dollars. For a purchase in August 2025, it is a loss of 5–16% in every currency. The calculation does not include fees or rental income.

Q. Will foreigners no longer be able to buy Japanese real estate?

As of October 2026, there is no law that generally prohibits acquisitions by foreign nationals. Mechanisms for tracking acquisitions have started, such as reporting under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act and nationality declarations in registration. A proposal has been made to require prior approval around important facilities and in similar areas, but it has not become law.

Q. Can special-zone minpaku in Osaka keep operating?

Existing facilities can keep operating. New applications closed on May 29, 2026, and rooms cannot be added. Switching to a hotel business license will also face stricter building requirements under the ordinance amendment scheduled to take effect on October 30.

Q. Can a company that holds real estate be sold as a whole?

Yes. It is done by transferring the company's shares to the buyer, and the property stays in the company's name. Because the buyer also takes on the company's borrowings, contracts and past tax affairs, the buyer examines the company itself in advance. Tax, procedures and the way the net proceeds are received differ from selling only the property, so the choice is made in light of the property's unrealized gain, the company's borrowings and the seller's country of residence. We advise on both.

Q. What should people living outside Japan watch for when selling Japanese real estate?

When only the property is sold, the buyer, as a rule, withholds income tax from the purchase price. Selling shares in a company that holds real estate may also be taxed in Japan. Filing in your country of residence and procedures for remitting the money from Japan are also required. In foreign-currency terms, gains in yen prices have often been eroded by the exchange rate, so the exchange rate also needs to be taken into account when deciding when to sell.

Sources

• Bank of Japan, "Statement on Monetary Policy" (当面の金融政策運営について), September 18, 2026 https://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf
• Bank of Japan, Financial System Report (金融システムレポート), April 2026 https://www.boj.or.jp/research/brp/fsr/data/fsr260421a.pdf
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• Real Estate Information Network for East Japan, Monthly Flash Report "Market Watch", August 2026 https://www.reins.or.jp/pdf/trend/mw/mw_202608_summary.pdf
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• MLIT, Overview of the 2026 (Reiwa 8) Prefectural Land Price Survey (令和8年都道府県地価調査の概要) https://www.mlit.go.jp/totikensangyo/content/002021832.pdf
• JLL, Investment Market Dynamics, First Half 2026 https://www.jll.com/content/dam/legacy/jll-com/documents/pdf/research/apac/japan/26-insights-japan-investment-market-dynamics-q2-2026-ja.pdf
• Federal Reserve Board, H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (FRED) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS
• European Central Bank, euro foreign exchange reference rates https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/eurofxref/eurofxref-hist.zip
• MLIT, Real Estate Information Library: Real Estate Transaction Price Information (不動産情報ライブラリ 不動産取引価格情報) https://www.reinfolib.mlit.go.jp/realEstatePrices/
• Osaka City, list of certified facilities under the National Strategic Special Zone Foreign Visitor Accommodation Business (special-zone minpaku) (国家戦略特別区域外国人滞在施設経営事業（特区民泊）)
• Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 2025 Population Census: Preliminary Results (2025年国勢調査 速報) https://www.stat.go.jp/data/kokusei/2025/kekka/pdf/summary.pdf
• Real Estate Economic Institute, Tokyo Metropolitan Area New Condominium Market Trends, First Half 2026 https://www.fudousankeizai.co.jp/share/mansion/679/s2026-16.pdf
• Japan Research Institute, Exchange Rate Outlook, September 2026 (為替相場展望) https://www.jri.co.jp/file/report/exchange/pdf/16946.pdf

Author and reviewer

Yuichi Ikarashi

Representative Director, Japan Financial Strategy Center. Graduate of the Faculty of Economics, Kyoto University. Formerly with the corporate risk and legal division at Sompo Japan's head office, then completed numerous transactions at a TSE-listed M&A advisory firm. Founded Japan Financial Strategy Center in 2020, specialising in M&A, business succession and financial strategy. Certified Professional CFO / M&A Expert (Japan CFO Association); registered M&A support provider with the Small and Medium Enterprise Agency.

This article is based on materials published by the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, the Ministry of Finance and private research firms, and on our own aggregation of MLIT's Real Estate Transaction Price Information. It is a market assessment, not a guarantee of future prices or exchange rates, and not advice on any particular property. For the tax treatment of a sale, consult a tax accountant or other qualified professional.
Medians move with the mix of properties traded; figures for areas with few transactions can swing widely.
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